Radnor Hills Handicap Stakes (gbbplus Race)

Patagonia Girl has distance and going experience to call on and a speed rating that edges ahead of her official mark, making her a genuine threat here; the worry is her recent finishing positions have been modest, with just one win in her last five starts.

Charmaine has been knocking on the door with a string of fourths in recent starts, and a runner-up finish four starts back shows she can go close — our rating of 88 makes her a leading threat off 141 lb, though she remains winless and needs to finally convert.

Ran third last time out after a 43-day break, and he has winning form in recent starts — a winner three starts back and again five starts back — but he carries 139 lb and our rating of 80 ranks him fifth of seven, suggesting he faces a stiff task here.

Winless in his last five starts, Westerton nonetheless catches the eye on ratings — our figure of 90 has him top-rated, and he returns fit on 13 days' rest having run over today's trip and going before; the risk is that his recent form figures simply don't back it up.

Timber Twelve catches the eye on recent form, winning one of his last two starts and boasting three wins in his last five; he has experience of today's trip and going, and 32 days between runs shouldn't inconvenience him. A trainer in lean form is the one note of caution.